CRA: Weather In Cocoa Growing Areas Through 26 August 2024

That Ghana lost its 24/25 purchasing loan and the yet-to-be announced farm prices in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana will affect how these countries’ 24/25 cocoa crops reach the world market and what market participants believe to be the crop of each country. How the crops are talked about, priced, financed, and exported can be more important for market action than the volume outcomes.

West Africa. The summer low-rain period in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana has turned its corner at about the same time as recent seasons and slightly sooner and slightly wetter than during the drier Aug of 2020. Numerous media reports about decreases in storms in West Africa and subnormal soil moisture ignore that rain always slows during Aug. Jul-Aug rain of this season has followed the pattern of 2020 when despite low rain, the crops of West Africa established records that have not been repeated. Rain has returned to Nigeria’s western cocoa area after being low for several months. The pattern according to Veriground stations in Akure has followed the reports for 2020 in the same area.

Through 26 Aug. For updates, see www.Veriground.net

Veriground real-time weather charts watch cocoa areas of Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and Ecuador and show rain, humidity and temperature. The charts are updated usually 0-12 hours after collection. Use the link above. For help, contact CRA. Charts of traditional sources for major origins are here.

Other areas. Rain near Bahia’s cocoa area returned to normal in mid Aug. A fourth period of extreme rain has not materialized. However, farmers tell of severe losses from the earlier cycles of extreme rain. Afternoon temperatures in Bahia remain high while morning temperatures remain low. Rain in Para has been low, about 20 mm/month, but low rain is normal during Jul-Sep. Like in Bahia, temperatures in Para continue to make new afternoon highs and new morning lows, meaning less cloud cover and less humidity. Weather in Brazil’s cocoa areas during 2024 has deviated from normal more than weather in the world’s other cocoa areas. Although Brazil’s total crop is only 225 tmt, its weather merits attention because Brazil offers one of the best opportunities for supplementing the African crops. Rain in the cocoa areas of Ecuador remains light and typical for the season. Residents have reported low temperatures. Temperatures at WMO stations and VG stations have declined but are not unusually low. Rain over Sulawesi and other islands has slowed to normal. ENSO. Unchanged. Conditions in the Pacific are drifting toward a La Niña during late 2024.

--- Steven Haws, Matthew Haws, Stephen Dunn

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