CRA: Weather in Cocoa Growing Areas to 11 Oct 2025

West Africa. Average rain across the cocoa area of Côte d’Ivoire has returned to amounts typical for recent years 2020-2024. However, the distribution still is skewed heavily to the northwest. Thirty-day rain in the northwest, around Man, has exceeded 200 mm and very recent readings, if they continue, will keep the 30-day rate above 160 mm. In the past week, the 30-day totals in other cocoa regions have improved, especially in the east, where the 30-day total across the eastern third of the Côte d’Ivoire cocoa area has reached 150 mm. However, Veriground stations in the southwest, near San Pedro and Sassandra, report only 36 mm during the past 30 days.

Visitors in northwest Côte d’Ivoire confirm that excess rain has been  causing extensive Black Pod losses in the 25/26 main crop. The losses can reach 50 tmt. Because the decline in terminal prices and differentials and increase in the farm price will stop smuggling, the losses will reduce exports from Guinea rather than from Côte d’Ivoire.

Average rain in Ghana during the latest 30 days has recovered like in Côte d’Ivoire and has been more uniform. Odds of losses to Black Pod are small. Risks of losses due to the long period of low rain during Aug-Sep are greater. A crop survey shows some losses.

Other origins. Rain over Nigeria’s cocoa area has been widespread and more than the average amounts reported from Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. There have been multiple reports that farmers and middlemen have had difficulty drying beans. However, concerns about the crop are few. Ecuador. Rain is starting after the usual Aug-Sep dry period. VG stations report about 10 mm in the latest 10 days and the WMO reports about 5 mm. Rain usually starts to return in Oct. Brazil. Bahia’s rain was close to normal through Sep. In Para, rain has started to return after the usual Jul-Sep dry period. Amounts have been close to normal. Rain in Peru’s cocoa area during Sep increased to about two-third more than the area’s normal. After a dry 2023 and very dry 2024, rain has almost returned to normal during 2025. Rain in Sulawesi has slowed but has been more than sufficient for cocoa. ENSO. NOAA saw La Niña conditions emerge during Sep. A weak La Niña probably will continue through about Feb 2026.