CRA: Weather in Cocoa Growing Areas to 29 Oct 2025

West Africa.  Rain in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana have finally returned to average rates. The distribution also has moved toward the center of the cocoa area. Rain in Côte d’Ivoire’s northwest has slowed to nil during the latest 10 days. In most regions of the cocoa areas of both counties, rain is slowing.

Aug-Oct 2025 rain appears to have been unusual. Although the Intertropical Front (ITF) stayed somewhat close to its normal trajectory everywhere except briefly over Nigeria, rain distribution was distorted. Rain was heavy in the northwest of Côte d’Ivoire and often below normal elsewhere across Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Regional charts at CRA’s Veriground website and the distribution charts below show this. It is possible that the pattern occurred for the first time in 2025 and is one of the many unusual weather events that are occurring. Crop surveys that do not reach northwest of Côte d’Ivoire would not have noticed the distortion. Surveys do cover the areas of low rain and did report low soil moisture. (CRA is investigating whether the pattern was unusual.)

While rain is ending across the cocoa areas of Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana as the Harmattan period nears, deliveries in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana are behind recent seasons. Odds of future cuts in CRA’s crop forecasts are increasing. If the Harmattan starts early, and especially if it is severe, many parts of the cocoa area will already lack moisture and will dry quickly. A report from one important cocoa area in Côte d’Ivoire, an area that saw a long period of low rain, told that by mid-Nov the trees will be empty of pods both mature and young. The report confirmed Veriground reports that rain there was starting to decrease.

West African weather can interrupt the decline in cocoa prices. Although prospects for another significant surplus are likely, news about declining West African crop prospects and poor rain in the pre-Harmattan period can motivate a major short-covering rally. Net short and gross short positions have been growing, although still modest. Many market participants are reported to be expecting prices to continue to decline. During the 1977/78 bull market, a short covering rally occurred near this time. Terminal prices rose about £1900 over 6 months in current terms.