CRA: Weather in Cocoa Growing Areas to 4 Oct 2025

West Africa. Average rain reported from Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana has recovered to normal levels. However, the distribution of rain in Côte d’Ivoire still is very uneven. The area of heaviest rain still is on the western side of Côte d’Ivoire. In the northwest, rain at Veriground stations during Sep reached 261 mm. A video from the western side of Côte d’Ivoire west of Man and near the border with Guinea showed extensive losses to Black Pod. Rain in other parts of the cocoa area during Sep was 70-110 mm except in the southwest where rain during Sep was only 26 mm. The regional distribution can be seen at the Veriground website.

The excess rain in northwest Côte d’Ivoire will cause some amount of losses from the 25/26 main crop. Because the area of excess rain is large and the trees are productive, the losses can reach 50 tmt. The decline of terminal prices and increase in the farm price will stop smuggling. The losses therefore will appear as fewer imports from Guinea rather than as less Côte d’Ivoire arrivals. Losses in the southwest should reduce arrivals.

Average rain in Ghana during Sep reached 100 mm. There were significant differences between regions. In Ghana’s northwest, 30-day rain exceeded amounts elsewhere, reaching 162 mm. Rain Côte d’Ivoire all Veriground localities Rain, 30-day sum (mm) “High” and “low” show the highest and lowest comparable values reported during 2020-2024. Ghana all Veriground localities Rain, 30-day sum (mm). Rain in the north center, between Kumasi and Sunyani, reached 126 mm. Stations further south reported around 100 mm. Probably no part of Ghana has seen significant Black Pod losses. A survey during early Sep found no measurable incidence. During travel to install weather stations, CRA’s installation team encountered one farmer’s complaint about Black Pod.

Rain over Nigeria’s cocoa area has been widespread and heavier than the averages reported from Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. There have been multiple reports that farmers and middlemen have had difficulty drying beans. Ecuador and national stations report no significant rain. Brazil. Bahia’s . ENSO rain was close to normal through early Sep. Para’s . VG rain during recent weeks has been low in a time when rain usually is low. Rain in Peru has been close to normal, also rain in Sula

wesi . The ENSO report issued early in Sep favors a La Niña emerging soon and persisting for a few months.