CRA: Weather in Cocoa Growing Areas Through 19 October 2024

Ecuador. Severe dryness is emerging in Ecuador, also Colombia. Rain has been low since spring and has slowed to almost nil since late Jul. Daily power blackouts are occurring in Guayaquil and other cities.

Ecuador’s rain has a strong seasonal pattern (visible in the chart at right and in history from national stations). During the 2020 La Niña, rain was similarly low, sometimes lower, and lasted through Nov without notable cocoa crop losses. Low rainfall in 2024 may not yet reduce the crop. However, losses can start if rain does not return very soon. But some comparisons warrant concern: (1) Power rationing is much worse than in the past. (2) Rain has been low like 2020 although La Niña measures and sea temperatures are not as low as then. (3) News reports tell that water levels in the Amazon have become very low. Western Ecuador and Colombia are important sources of the Amazon. The

drought therefore is extensive. (4) Although sea surface temperatures are not usually cool, they have fallen far and rapidly from their peak during the last El Niño. There have been only two comparable declines since 1950: 1983-84 and 1998. Ecuador’s crops fell very far in these periods: from 87 tmt in 81/82 to 46 tmt in 82/23 and 42 tmt in 83/84, then returning to 116 tmt in the next year; and from 104 tmt in 96/97 to 30 tmt in 97/98 then recovering to 73 tmt in 98/99 and 105 tmt in 1999/2000.

West Africa and other areas. Rain in Côte d’Ivoire during the latest 30 days reached 147 mm with 200 mm in the west center. This is much less than the 600 mm reported in the southwest during Jun 2023. News reports tell of roads washed out and delays in moving cocoa. Delays will slow but not stop arrivals. Rain  is increasing in Ghana and Nigeria. The 30-day total in their cocoa areas has reached 100-150 mm. Rain near cocoa in Brazil’s Bahia state slowed to 35 mm in the 30 days through 10 Oct. Rain in Para state is following its seasonal path. Unlike Ecuador, rain in Peru’s cocoa area is returning from a six-month dry period. ENSO. Met offices see only a moderate, short La Niña.