CRA: Weather in Cocoa Growing Areas to 15 Nov 2025

West Africa.  Rain in Côte d’Ivoire has been slowing at a typical rate for the season except in the southwest and southeast, where rain was heavier within the range of recent years. Average rain in the north and center was 50-100 mm during the latest 30 days according to Veriground stations. Rain in the southwest and southeast was about 150 mm during the latest 30 days. ERA5 has been showing much higher amounts of 150-250 mm in the north and center and 250-350 in the southwest and southeast. Parts of the southwest have seen enough rain that rivers are full or flooding. The Veriground stations, which number only four in the southwest and four in the southeast may not have been in the right locations to capture the largest storms. On the other hand, ERA5 may be overstating rain.

Rain in Ghana is slowing like typical seasons with an average for the latest 30 days of 90 mm and a range across regions of 75 to 150 mm. Like in Côte d’Ivoire, ERA5 reports constructed from satellite observations show more rain. Reports of the southwest, which is adjacent to the southeast area of Côte d’Ivoire, reported 250-350 mm during the latest 30 days, while Veriground stations reported only 150 mm. Like in Côte d’Ivoire, the difference could have come about because Veriground stations were in areas that missed the strongest storms. ERA5 reports of heavier rain than seen by Veriground stations were common across the region.

Last issue called attention to the risks of another early or severe Harmattan like that of 24/25. This has not happened so far. Average rain since mid Oct has been as good as during Nov 2024. The drift toward a La Niña has been slightly stronger than meteorologists foresaw. This raises the odds for a mild Harmattan. On the other hand, the latest crop survey in Côte d’Ivoire found disappointing setting, development, and survival among most developing pods.