CRA: Weather in Cocoa Growing Areas through 24 September 2024

West Africa. The post-Aug return of rain that is normal for the cocoa area is happening slowly. Amounts at Veriground stations in Côte d’Ivoire  have followed 2020, amounts in Ghana have been lagging, while rain in Nigeria has catching up rapidly with past seasons. (The reports of severe floods in West Africa refer to floods along the Niger River and its tributaries. These drain West Africa above the cocoa areas. Rain in the cocoa areas has been low because the ITF drew the annual summer storms further north than usual.) The reports from Veriground stations that Ghana has been driest are consistent with other reports.

Now, the rain band across Africa that follows the ITF is moving south in satellite images, in the reports from northern Veriground stations, and in other reports. For example, Veriground stations in the northwest of Côte d’Ivoire, around Man, report 150 mm during the past 30 days and 66 mm in the latest 10 days. As CRA has suggested, the slow return has the potential to benefit the 24/25 harvest by giving farmers time to collect, dry and move their crops and a late return of rain will top up moisture levels before the Harmattan. Crops that came after the rain pattern of 2020 set records despite the modest summer rains of that year.

Other areas. Rain near Bahia’s cocoa area has slowed to about half of normal in the latest 30 days. Rain in Para has slowed almost to nil. Temperatures in Baha and Para are staying high. Highs in Bahia during 2024 and 2023 are the highest in CRA’s records of about 15 years and at least 2ºC above a 30 normal of some past period. High temperatures in Para have been higher than last  year and are approaching 3ºC above the 30-year normal. Weather developments in Bahia deserve attention. Rain in the Pacific cocoa areas of Ecuador has slowed to nil. Very little rain is normal during Jul-Sep. Rain over Sulawesi has slowed to only a dozen mm in the latest 10 days but still has been about 100 mm in the latest 30 days. ENSO. The met offices of Australia and the U.S. are giving slight odds for a weak La Niña to emerge during late 2024.