CRA: Weather in Cocoa Growing Areas through 6 October 2024

West Africa. The ITF (Intertropical Front) finally is moving south. Rain is moving into West Africa with rapid increases in Côte d’Ivoire to 147 mm during the past 30 days and in Nigeria to 100 mm.  Rain in Ghana has been increasing at a slower pace. The 30-day total in Ghana has reached 73 mm. If recent daily rates continue, Ghana’s 30-day total will reach 150 mm by late Oct. Humidity across the cocoa area is returning to the level of recent seasons after being low for several months. The range between low and high temperatures has narrowed, indicating more clouds than at this time of recent seasons.

Crop surveys show that rain’s slow return damaged to the cocoa crop during the final weeks of Sep. Whereas the number of younger pods found during late Aug-mid Sep 2024 exceeded the numbers found during many recent seasons, the number in late Sep 2024 fell short of most recent Seps. However, the ITF 2024 cycle affected only where rain fell, not the amount. The amount, which has been very high in 2024,  always depends in part on the state of the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). The neutral or slight drift of the ENSO in 2024 toward a La Niña means that late 2024 rain across the cocoa belt can be good and that the Harmattan can be mild. Mild conditions can bring a long harvest and eventually good 24/25 crop.

Other areas. Reporting from Brazil’s national weather agency has been interrupted. Data through late Sep and early Oct were not available. In mid Sep, rain near Bahia’s cocoa area slowed to about half of normal. Rain in Para slowed almost to nil. Temperatures in Baha and Para were staying high with highs in Bahia during 2024 (and 2023) among the highest in CRA’s records of about 15 years and at least 2ºC above a 30 normal. High temperatures in Para were approaching 3ºC above the 30-year normal. In the Pacific-coast cocoa areas of Ecuador, rain was very low during Jul-Sep, which is normal. Occasional small amounts have been reported recently by national and Veriground stations. Rain should return during Oct. Sulawesi rain was slow for a few weeks but is returning and never was less than 100 mm in 30 days. ENSO. Australia’s met office expects the ENSO to stay within the neutral range through Feb. The latest report of the U.S. CPC, which preceded the Australian report, gave slight odds for a weak La Niña.