CRA: Weather in Cocoa Growing Areas Through 23 November 2024

West Africa. Rain at CRA’s Veriground stations in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana has slowed at a pace like recent seasons. However, average amounts have been usually less. The average for the latest 10 days through 23 Nov was 12.8 mm in Côte d’Ivoire compared with 9.9 to 29.1 mm during recent seasons. Ghana saw 15.8 mm compared with 15.9 to 21.8 mm.

Anecdotes about high temperatures in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana have been cited as a crop risk. High temperatures at national stations of Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana recently were about 1°C above known past averages while temperatures at VG stations, usually away from cities, were several degrees below reports of the past four years. Temperatures in Nigeria at national stations during recent months have been 1-2° above normals. Bahia temperatures have been less than national reports from Africa, while Para temperatures have been close to Africa reports. There have been no reports that Para’s temperatures pose crop risks. Other anecdotes mention low humidity in Africa. Veriground reports concur that humidity is declining, which is normal as the Harmattan approaches. Only in Côte d’Ivoire is humidity less than during 2023. The importance of temperature and humidity is uncertain to the crop reports is uncertain but deserves attention.

Ecuador. Unchanged. Significant rain has not yet returned. Reports do not tell of crop problems. Rain in Peru’s cocoa area, about 850 km from the center of Ecuador’s cocoa area, increased during Oct and has reached twice normal since late Oct. Reports also tell that heavy rain has been falling along Colombia’s northern Pacific coast. Rain might be very heavy when it returns to Ecuador. Brazil. Rain near Bahia’s cocoa has slowed to about half of normal during the past 75 days. Rain for Para’s cocoa started late and is returning slowly in its annual progression, but like Bahia has been only about half of normal. Sulawesi rain remains typical. ENSO. The met offices mostly expect neutral ENSO conditions. Australia’s met office cautions that the increases in global ocean heat may cause that climate indicators such as ENSO do not behave as in the past. The unusual patterns in Africa and western South America may belong to these changes.