CRA: Weather in Cocoa Growing Areas Through 28 December 2024

West Africa. Only small amounts of rain at random places have been reaching cocoa areas of Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Average 30-day rain at national stations of Côte d’Ivoire was nil at 20 Dec The norm is 27 mm. The average at VG stations through 28 Dec was 9 mm. In Ghana, the average at national stations was 1 mm when 44 mm has been normal. The average at VG stations was 11 mm. High temperatures often cited in media reports are in cities. VG stations, mostly outside cities, report lower highs and higher lows than other reports and an average slightly lower. Farmers say that the Harmattan winds have strengthened, which draws moisture from plants and soil. Humidity readings at VG stations are like those of the two past years so do not yet show worse conditions. Weather in Nigeria has been similar.

Meteorologists judged that 2020-2021 saw a moderate La Niña like current ENSO conditions. Rain during the 2020-2021 Harmattan was good with 62.5 mm at national stations and 54.4 at VG stations. Moderate and weak La Niñas followed in 2021-2022 and 2022-2023. Rain during the Harmattans of these years was one half to one third of the amount reported during the 2020-2021 Harmattan. That the 2024-2025 La Niña is weak and, at least during Dec, rain has been still less, warrants attention to the risk that climate change in West Africa is creating drier Harmattans.

Other areas. Rain in Ecuador’s cocoa areas is returning late but is accelerating well. National stations saw 31 mm during the 30 days through 20 Dec. VG stations saw 55 mm during 30 days through 28 Dec. Maximum temperatures at national stations have been high during 2024 and sometimes have set records for the available history. Temperatures at VG stations have stayed in the range of recent years. Rain in Peru’s cocoa area reached twice normal during Nov, 150 mm/30 days, then has slowed to normal during Dec. The Nov burst ended a six-month period when rain usually was half of normal or less. In Brazil, rain near Bahia’s cocoa has been half of normal or less since Sep. Reports for the latest 30 days through 20 Dec show only 24 mm while normal is 146 mm. Rain for Para’s cocoa started late but is increasing. The 30 days through 20 Dec received 94 mm compared to 140 mm normally. Maximum temperatures in Bahia and Para have decreased but remain high compared to norms. Sulawesi appears to be entering another period of very heavy rain. WMO stations reported 531 mm during 30 days through 20 Dec compared to a nom of 314 mm. ENSO. The Australian and U.S. met offices still forecast weak a La Niña tending toward neutral during coming months.