CRA: Weather in Cocoa Growing Areas Through 30 May 2025

West Africa.  Veriground and national stations agree that rain has been reaching the cocoa areas at about normal rates through the end of May.  VG stations in Côte d’Ivoire reported 137 mm vs. 98-139 mm during 2020-2024. National stations reported 152 mm vs. 30-year normal of about 137 mm. VG stations in Ghana reported 121 mm vs. 72-163 mm during 2020-2024 and national stations reported 209 mm vs. a 30-year average of 177 mm. VG stations in Côte d’Ivoire reported rain at 69 of 73 sites during the latest 10 days and VG stations in Ghana reported rain at 66 of 68 sites.

Rain north and south of the cocoa area in Côte d’Ivoire has been heavier than within the area. This probably means that, as the ITZ advances, rain in the Côte d’Ivoire cocoa area will increase. This calls to mind the extreme rains in the southern cocoa area of Côte d’Ivoire during the spring of 2023. The risk merits attention.  Rain along the coast of Ghana has been less extreme.

Residents, crop surveyors, and visitors to Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana  still are reporting unusually high temperatures in the cocoa areas. Neither national stations nor VG stations show unusually high temperatures this season. CRA’s Cocoa Report of 25 Apr 2025 found that temperatures in the cocoa areas during the past two decades have been rising 50% or more faster than the global average. Deforestation probably is responsible for the more rapid rise. Some studies have reported that when temperatures exceed 32°C, cocoa yields begin to decline. CRA is working to assess possible connections in field data between temperature and season-to-season yields

Other areas. There have been reports of flooding in Nigeria. Some of the flooded area may be within a few hundred kilometers of the western cocoa area. Reports from other origins have not changed. Rain of recent months in Ecuador continues to slow. In Brazil, rain near Bahia’s cocoa area has been fluctuating around normal since early 2025. Rain in Para has returned to about typical.  In contrast to reports from West Africa, temperatures in Bahia and Para  have been persistently high for several years. Rain in Peru’s cocoa area has been cycling around normal since Feb and rain in Sulawesi has been slowing toward normal. ENSO. No change. NOAA expects neutral conditions to continue.