CRA: Weather in Cocoa Growing Areas to 10 August 2025

CRA has started adding to rain charts at KnowledgeCharts recent and past data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The data eventually will cover more areas than now covered by Veriground stations, such as Brazil, and will include temperature and other variables. The data have a latency of about five days. To learn more, contact CRA.

West Africa. Rain is moving toward the cocoa areas of West Africa. Increasing amounts been falling at Veriground stations in Ghana’s Upper East Region. At the four VG sites in that region, average rain during the past 10 days was 67 mm. These stations are about 400 km north of the northern edge of Ghana’s cocoa area and therefore do not show rain reaching cocoa. They do show that rain is approaching cocoa. The lower chart at right shows that the 30-day total of rain has stopped declining, reflecting the arrival of some early showers. VG regional charts, available at the VG website, indicate that rain in the NW cocoa area reached 18 mm in the latest 10 days. Rain likely will spread through the cocoa area in coming days.

Veriground does not yet have stations at a comparable latitude for Côte d’Ivoire. At the end of Jul, the ITF over Côte d’Ivoire was moving south in parallel with the ITF over Ghana (chart here). Rain therefore probably is advancing south like the reports from Ghana.

Even if rain returns slowly enough to reduce the 24/25 main crops of Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, harvest reports from Cameroon, Nigeria, Ecuador, and Peru show large increases that are replacing losses there or increasing opportunities for a 25/26 surplus.

Reports from Ibadan, Nigeria, on the western side of Nigeria’s western cocoa area, indicate that rain started to return in early Aug. Rain in Ecuador remains close to nil at VG and national stations, typical for the season. Due to good rain early in 2025, cumulative totals are ahead of normal. In Brazil, the 30-day total near Bahia’s cocoa area returned to normal due to abundant rain at the end of Jul.  During early Aug, rain has been light. Rain in Para’s cocoa area has been close to normal since Jun. Rain in Peru recently has stopped. Amounts during May-Jul averaged about 90% of normal. Sulawesi rain of recent weeks has slowed to about half of normal, which is sufficient for cocoa for some weeks. The 2025 cumulative exceeds normal. ENSO. No new report. NOAA‘s Jul assessment saw neutral conditions through Oct, perhaps drifting toward a mild La Niña thereafter.