CRA: Weather in Cocoa Growing Areas to 18 August 2025

West Africa. Significant rain moved into Côte d’Ivoire on 17 Aug and fell at most Veriground stations, leaving more than 6 mm on average per station. A few stations reported more than 20 mm. Rain continued the 18^th at a few stations. In Ghana, the average rain per station on the 17^th was less than in Côte d’Ivoire, but rain in Ghana continued into the 18^th and left more than in Côte d’Ivoire.

The amounts reported in Côte d’Ivoire on the 17^th exceeded by a wide margin any day of the past 30 days. Although some rain was reported almost everywhere in the cocoa area during the past 30 days, the reports for the 17^th mean that storms are arriving. Rain on the 17^th in Ghana was less than in Côte d’Ivoire, but more was falling in preceding days. Over the past 10 days, Veriground stations in Ghana have reported almost 40% more rain than Côte ’Ivoire stations have reported.

Forecasts do not show significant rain over the cocoa area of Côte d’Ivoire during the coming week. Forecasts show some rain continuing in Ghana through the 19^th, then returning on 23-24 August.

Many market reports have called attention to cool temperatures. These reports have either stated or implied that the cool temperatures are detrimental to the cocoa crop. Their claim probably is incorrect. Although daily highs of Jul-Aug have been less than during recent years, temperatures have been rising across the decades. The chart at right for Côte d’Ivoire shows a long-term history of temperatures in Côte d'Ivoire maintained by U.S. NOAA. Temperatures have been rising over the decades. Recent high temperatures have only returned to levels comparable to the decade 2001-2010 and have been warmer than in earlier decades. Temperatures above 32°C have been found to reduce cocoa yields. The cool temperatures of 2025, which have retreated to around 29.5°C probably have benefitted the 24/25 main crop.

Rain in Nigeria, Ecuador, Bahia, Para, Peru and Sulawesi has been similar to the reports of past weeks. ENSO. A new report from NOAA expects neutral conditions to continue with a temporary drift to light La Niña conditions at the end of 2025.