CRA: Weather in Cocoa Growing Areas to 24 August 2025

West Africa. Rain continues to stay away from important cocoa areas of Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. The good showers of 17-18 Aug have been followed by a week of very little rain across the cocoa areas except showers in the northwest and southwest of Ghana and northwest and center west of Côte d’Ivoire. Only a few Veriground stations in the remainder of the cocoa areas of both countries have seen occasional showers at a few sites.

Residents and crop surveyors report that  Jul-Aug temperatures have been cool compared with recent years. They see this as a risk for the crop. However, temperatures in West Africa have been rising for decades at about 0.5°C per decade. The cool temperatures of Jul-Aug have been typical or warm compared with the 2001-2010 decade. Returning to temperatures of 15 years ago will not reduce yields. Two charts at KnowledgeCharts show 45 years of temperatures for Côte d’Ivoire and for Ghana. However, the residents and crop surveyors also report that the skies have been very cloudy. Excessive cloudiness may hurt development.

The latest crop survey in Côte d’Ivoire found that main crop development was trailing that of recent of years except being ahead of the very poor 23/24 crop. Development in Ghana is better than recent years except 24/25.

Rain in Nigeria has been much better than in Côte d’Ivoire or Ghana. Reports tell that in Nigeria there has been flooding and excess humidity in the beans. Rain in Ecuador continues to be almost nil, which is typical for Aug and probably will continue into Oct. Conditions near the cocoa area of Bahia have drifted behind recent months, and high temperatures have been cool. Weather in Para has been slightly better than normal and cumulative rain for 2025 has been very good. High temperatures have been close to 2024 until cooling recently as rain has increased. Rain in Peru and Sulawesi also have been normal. ENSO. A new report from NOAA expects neutral conditions to continue with a temporary drift to light La Niña conditions at the end of 2025.