CRA: Weather in Cocoa Growing Areas to 24 Nov 2025

West Africa. The 30-day rain total  across Côte d’Ivoire has increased since last issue. Average rain amounts during the past 30 days have been 91 mm after 62 mm in 2024. Late Nov 2024 was the period when rain slowed swiftly and preceded the long 2024-25 Harmattan. So far in 2025, his has not happened. Amounts now vary about evenly from east to west with the least rain in the northern cocoa areas at about 35 mm during the latest 30 days, 50-75 mm in the center, and 140-200 in the south. Last issue pointed out that ERA5 has been showing much higher amounts than VG ground stations.  Typical satellite derived amounts for the past 30 days have been 75 mm in the north, 150 mm in the center, and 200-250 mm in the south. CRA is constructing a detailed comparison of ERA5 satellite estimates with Veriground ground stations. The comparison should be available by the second quarter of 2026.

Rain in Ghana is slowing at a rate likely for a typical season with an average for the latest 30 days of 78 mm across the cocoa area. The average in the north was 35-60 mm, 65-100 mm in the center, and 95-150 mm in the south.  Like in Côte d’Ivoire, ERA5 reports constructed from satellite observations usually show more rain than the ground stations, sometimes much more.  ERA5 reports for Nigeria show a steep decrease in rainfall from 240 mm in the 30 days through 20 Oct to 98 mm through Nov 10. Residents say that the decline has continued.

A new survey of Ghana’s crop shows good prospects for the remaining main crop harvest but a poor outlook for the start of the 2026 summer crop. This matches other reports that have been circulating.

Other regions. In Ecuador after the usual dry summer, rain is starting but developing slowly. Rain in Para has been only about 40% of normal. National reports from Bahia have not been available since 20 Sep for unknown reasons. After several good months, rain in Peru has been decreasing to about one third of normal. After six normal months, rain in Sulawesi has started to build. This probably is accompanying the ENSO transition from neutral to a La Niña phase. The slow start of rain in Ecuador also probably reflects the onset of a La Niña. ENSO. NOAA expects the La Nina to be weak and last through Dec or perhaps Feb.