CRA: Weather in Cocoa Growing Areas Through 12 November 2024

West Africa. Many of the reports about extreme rain, drought, and heat in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana were due to brief, isolated conditions. The ITF returned southward during late Sep-Oct after dropping heavy rain in the Sahel and Sahara. As it passed over the cocoa area, some storms washed out roads. For example, national stations show extreme 10-day rain events in the city of Man during late Aug and again during Sep-Oct that collapsed to nil in early Nov. VG stations, spread across the western half of the cocoa area from south to north, show neither the spikes nor the collapse. Regional reports from VG stations are available at the website.

Through 12 November 2024

The media reports and anecdotes have emphasized the extremes. With more mobile phone users in the cocoa area every year, more reporting of extreme weather should be expected. Also, actual local extremes may be becoming more common due to Global Warming, one effect of which is more extremes. Similar developments apply to rain in Ghana and to temperatures and humidity in both countries. National and VG stations show no significant deviations from normal temperature except that VG stations report higher lows and lower highs than in recent years. This usually means more cloud cover, which might prevent humidity loss which might prevent humidity loss but slow pod development. National stations do not report humidity. VG stations report a small, recent decrease of humidity in Côte d’Ivoire. Rain in Nigeria’s western cocoa area was heavy during Sep-Oct and now is slowing.

Ecuador. Significant rain has not yet returned. Reports do not tell of cocoa crop problems. Rain in Peru’s cocoa area, about 850 km from the center of Ecuador’s cocoa area, increased during Oct and was about 50% or normal during early Nov. Rain probably is coming to Ecuador. Brazil. Rain near Bahia’s cocoa area was low during Sep and Oct, but now appears to be returning. Rain for Para’s cocoa started late and is returning slowly. Temperatures have decreased slightly in Bahia but still are setting records in Para. Sulawesi rain has been typical. ENSO. The met offices mostly expect neutral ENSO conditions. Australia’s met office cautions that the increases in global ocean heat may cause that climate indicators such as ENSO do not behave as in the past.